Tuesday, May 28, 2019

Iran 2019: peace or war?

The signing of the JCPA treaty, the nuclear agreement between the United States and Iran, was one of the two events that in recent years have raised many hopes for peace in the Middle East and the world. The other was the election of Donald Trump to the American presidency, for the many promises made during the electoral campaign regarding both the normalization of diplomatic relations between America and Russia and the progressive abandonment of a purely aggressive diplomacy, based exclusively on the armed forces and the concept of exceptionalism. However, in reality, all the hopes of a positive evolution are now frustrated and the drums of war seem to roll stronger than ever. The JCPOA was conceived as a beautiful ... carnivorous plant, destined to block, with the seductive scent of its illusory promises, all Iranian research in the nuclear and missile field, the latter perhaps even more essential for the defense of the Islamic Republic given the objective importance of missiles in air defense, in the artillery and naval warfare. Although the official document does not refer in any way to rockets and missiles, the almost total dismantling of Iran's long-range missile program had to be contemplated in some reserved annex. Many scientists have been fired and no Iranian, mechanical or in the flesh, has orbited the Earth, as former president Ahmadinejad wanted. On the other hand, if a satellite or a human being can be placed in high orbit, a nuclear warhead can also be delivered to a distant country. Making a comparison between Iran and North Korea, it is clear that being equipped with atomic bombs and missiles to launch them is a reasonable guarantee that no invasion will be attempted. No D-Day, no disembarkation in Normandy because every American army that tried to land on the North Korean coasts would be wiped off the face of the Earth and at least a couple of American cities would see above them a gigantic and deadly atomic mushroom. Hence, the understandable fears of Western chancelleries and the angry panic of the Jewish state. One of the keys to understanding both the de facto imposition of the JCPOA on Iran and its inevitable demise lies in the incurable mutual hostility between the Islamic Republic and Israel, of which many in Tehran would like the disappearance. It certainly does not help that Israel insists on considering Palestinians less than human and refuses to consider any peaceful and humane solution to the Palestinian problem. Therefore, Israel too craves the disappearance of the Islamic Republic, replaced by some form of more manageable Chaosthan, Libya-style or worse.

from PravdaReport

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